Mohammad Javad Saket, head of Market Research at
NPC, said geopolitical tensions, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine war,
have increased the primacy of political relations over economic ties in
international trade, limiting the full potential of global commerce. Historical
data indicates that trade volumes between 1995 and 2020 were about 7% below
capacity due to geopolitical misalignments.
“Long-term reconstruction of international trade
networks depends heavily on improved geopolitical relations, a process that can
take around a decade. Smaller economies are particularly vulnerable, as they
rely more on government support and have limited institutional capacity to
sustain trade independently,” Saket said.
According to Iran’s Customs Administration,
non-oil exports reached $59 billion (154 million tons) in the Iranian calendar
year 1403, with petrochemicals leading all sectors at $13 billion (29 million
tons), accounting for 22% of total non-oil exports. Most petrochemical
products, aside from urea primarily used as fertilizer, enter the value chains
of importing countries, offering potential for strengthening strategic economic
relations.
Saket highlighted shifting global economic
patterns. Data from Roland Berger shows that the Western bloc’s share of global
GDP (PPP-based) declined from 59% in 1990 to 40% in 2023, opening opportunities
for partnerships with emerging southern economies. Meanwhile, Boston Consulting
Group predicts that trade between Europe and Russia, and between China and the
West, could decline by $106 billion and $221 billion, respectively, by 2033,
while Gulf countries’ trade volume could rise by $240 billion, with one-third
involving China.
“These developments create both challenges and
opportunities for Iran’s petrochemical sector. By maintaining decision-making
stability, the industry can leverage market opportunities, optimizing the flow
of current and future products under the Seventh Development Plan to achieve
strategic economic objectives,” Saket said.