One of the most significant global threats in recent decades is
climate change. International organizations have categorized climate change as
one of the top ten phenomena posing a threat to global peace and security.
Iran, based on indices outlined in climate conventions, is considered
one of the countries vulnerable to all vulnerability indices and is among the
most susceptible nations. Apart from facing direct impacts of climate change,
such as reduced rainfall, increased droughts, floods, and hurricanes, Iran is
also vulnerable due to its economic dependence on oil and gas revenues,
affected by international climate change policies.
The general impacts include:
- Reduction
in Oil Revenues: As global markets shift towards renewable
energy, improved energy efficiency, and the development of low-carbon
resources like hydrogen, the demand for oil diminishes, leading to reduced
oil revenues.
- Decreased
Competitiveness of Petrochemical Exports: The
competitiveness and profit margins of exported petrochemical products
decline due to carbon taxation.
Given the current status of the country's natural and biological
resources and the leading economic threats resulting from climate change
mitigation actions, formulating comprehensive strategies and suitable solutions
for their management is of paramount importance. In this context, the
"Carbon Management Strategic Program" project was initiated in 2021
by the Health, Safety, and Environment Management of the National Petrochemical
Company (NPC).
The primary objectives of the project include calculating the current
emissions of greenhouse gases in the petrochemical industry, ensuring their
accuracy and precision, predicting emission trends in the future based on the
industry's development plans, identifying achievable emission reduction
targets, determining the marginal cost of emission reduction actions,
forecasting the climate status of petrochemical regions in the coming years,
and devising plans to mitigate climate change impacts and capitalize on
international opportunities for emission reduction and climate adaptation
initiatives.
The study evaluated the emission status of operational petrochemical
complexes and upcoming projects (plans for 2021 and 2022, seventh and eighth
development plans) for a total of 106 facilities.
Results indicated that the total emissions of greenhouse gases in the
petrochemical industry had exceeded approximately 37 million tons of carbon
dioxide equivalent in 2020. With a rising trend, it is projected to reach
around 100 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035 (1414) based on
current development plans.
The study also suggested that by implementing energy consumption
optimization measures (186 measures examined across facilities) and recovering
gases sent to flares, an annual reduction of 6 million tons of greenhouse gas
emissions could be achieved, preventing the cumulative release of 59 million
tons over the next ten years until 2030. This would result in a 5% reduction in
petrochemical industry emissions compared to the baseline scenario in 2030,
alleviating concerns about meeting emission reduction commitments under the
Paris Agreement for this industry.
The session was attended by representatives from various management
entities, including the National Petrochemical Industries Company, National Iranian
Oil Company, National Iranian Gas Company, National Iranian Oil Refining and
Distribution Company, Fuel Consumption Optimization Company, Petrochemical
Research and Technology Company, Petroleum Industry Research Institute,
Environmental Protection Organization, and Sharif University.